It's over for Britain

The UK is done.

Even if the economy is fixed and put onto a path of long-term growth (hint: it won't), the demographic changes taking place now are so profound that I doubt it will ever be the same place again.

This wouldn't be an issue if there was a real cultural conversation taking place with a view towards tight integration behind a unifying culture that represents the best of British, but no such thing is happening. Nor do I think it ever will happen - the likely outcome is a continuation of the status quo, eventually resulting in a persistent yet never-ending cultural friction.

Some people say civil war is likely. I'm not sure about that - I think British people are still very rational and sensible and would rather talk things out. But the Overton window is going to shift ever more to the right, and especially so now that the one possible left-wing government - Labour - has been shown to be such an abysmal failure.

Britain is no longer a country, but rather an "economic zone" largely propped up by hard-working Brits who still yearn for the times of yesteryear when things weren't as crazy as they are now.

But those good times are gone.

De-industrialisation, which has been allowed to happen for decades, is now gathering pace as it closes down its last steel works and pursues an ill-advised "Net Zero" strategy. I believe this will plunge the country into further energy crises, and manufacturing will be even further decimated. In general, Britain's ability to build anything will continue to be lacklustre. The country will increasingly need to import critical items from abroad, eroding its sovereignty ever more.

The high-tech industries of the future - e.g AI - will not be led by Britain, as much as the elites wish for this. Britain has a habit of announcing a desire to lead the world in something but then doing nothing to actually achieve that. The cultural DNA of entrepreneurship that can create global successes now only exists in a small segment of population who work in tech startups. But funding is hard to come by thanks to a risk averse culture, and so most end up either moving to and/or taking money from the States.

Meanwhile, hard-won globally successful businesses that could put Britain on the technology map - like ARM computing - are simply sold off to the highest foreign bidder with no concern or consideration of national security or leverage.

There is no vision or intellect apparent in any of the major decisions being made for the country. The country's political parties are bereft of any integrity. Incompetent government follows incompetent government, just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. And they're so numb to the national decay that a 0.6% GDP growth rate over 10 years is now being declared as a win.

Meanwhile, government ministers including the PM are still chest-thumping on the international stage with suggestions of leading a peace-keeping force in Ukraine and "standing up to China". Nobody wants to admit that Britain's geopolitical power is barely 10% of what it used to be. The reality of being a vassal state gets occluded by the fantasy of still being an empire.

The world has changed, but the British elite refuse to change with it. They want to hang onto their notions of innate supremacy, multicultural melting pots, and "diversity" and "tolerance" being all you need to have a culture.

Britain shall remain a better place to live than large parts of the world thanks, but any notion of exceptionalism is swiftly being relegated to the dustbin of history.

As long as fantasy takes the place of truth, the decline will continue until the truth is no longer avoidable. Then and only then can things change.