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No deal brexit should remain an option

2nd Sep 20196m26s

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  • I read that Boris Johnson stated that Conservative MPs who vote against the government's position regarding the proroguing of Parliament, and who try to pass legislation to stop a no-deal Brexit will be de-selected for the next general election campaign. And it's quite a drastic measure for the Prime Minister to be taking. Literally threatening to remove people from the party for going against the government's decision. And it comes down to no-deal Brexit. A large number of people, and in particular a large number of politicians, are against the idea of a no-deal Brexit due to the disruption it's perceived to cause, if it were to happen. The problem with being against no-deal Brexit is that it telegraphs to the EU that Britain will not walk away from the deal making process if a sufficiently satisfactory deal isn't on offer. Britain will be willing to compromise on its requirements in order to secure a deal because Members of Parliament have already publicly stated and passed a legal resolution in fact, that there is going to be no Brexit without a deal. And for me, that's just a fundamentally flawed position to be taking. Being able to walk away from a bad deal is actually a key requirement for getting a good deal in the first place. If we can't walk away from the Brexit deal that we're making with the EU then effectively we're telling the EU that we will happily compromise on every single thing that we want in order to secure a deal from them, and that they don't have to compromise on anything that they want. Which is exactly what's happened. One of the big reasons the withdrawal agreement, which is the current deal, failed to pass Parliament was because it just wasn't satisfactory to everybody in Britain. It didn't have everything we needed, it wasn't a fair deal for us. And yet, the EU have consistently stated that they're not willing to re-open this agreement, they're not willing to re-negotiate this deal. They're able to say that because they know there's such a large contingency of people in this country who are against no-deal Brexit. So they're gambling on the idea that ultimately Britain will be forced to accept the deal as it is. And that they don't need to budge on their position one bit. And Boris Johnson becoming PM and making these decisions, has thrown a spanner into the works for that because what he's basically saying is actually it's not a good deal and we're going to walk away from the deal unless you're willing to re-negotiate the deal with us. That's what he's telling the EU. So when he says that we must be willing to do a no-deal Brexit in the event of a bad deal, he's actually right about that. He's absolutely right about that. I don't agree with the steps that he's necessarily taking. But I absolutely agree that when you're making a deal with somebody you have to be willing, and they have to know that you're willing and able, to walk away from the deal otherwise they're not going to do you a fair deal. And I think this point is lost on a lot of the people who are clamoring to pass this legislation, to avoid a no-deal Brexit. Jeremy Corbyn, his allies, the other parliamentarians. To me, it's almost as if they don't understand the issues around deal-making. They're so concerned with the disruption caused by no-deal Brexit, that they're ignoring the fact that passing such legislation is then going to hamper our chances of getting a good deal with the EU. And it's a tough situation to be in. On the one hand, you don't really want to do a no-deal Brexit and Johnson himself has stated many times that he doesn't really want to do that. But, as he says, you need to show that you're willing to take that really painful course of action unless the EU gives us the kind of deal that's fair for both us a them. We all do deals in our lives. When you're buying a house, when you're applying for a job. If the salary that company's going to offer you is a lot less that what you need, then you're not going to take it. But, of course you can only make such a decision to walk away if there are alternative decisions, alternative means available to you. If there aren't then you're pretty much forced to take it, and that's how a lot of people end up in employment situations which are really dire because they don't have any other choice. So why would we deliberately put ourselves into such a situation when it comes to such an important deal for the entire country. We voted to leave the EU, we want to leave on good terms, we want to leave in a manner which makes it fair for us and them, so that we can have a great future trading relationship. So we need to give ourselves the best chance possible to secure the best deal possible for us, that's what they're doing. I mean, if anything if you think about it, and there are newspaper reports that back me up on this, the EU probably intend to punish Britain, or at least, via the deal making process, make it difficult for Britain to come out of this really good, as a way to deter other countries from leaving the EU. And I don't think they're particularly malicious in doing that, I think that's what I would expect them to do. I would expect them to make it difficult for us because they obviously don't want the EU project to end. But we need to recognize that and we need to act accordingly which means we need to have a strong negotiating position of our own. Which means being able to walk away from a deal and say, "We're willing to do a no-deal Brexit, unless you give us the deal that we want to get." And, it saddens me to see people not talk about that more and yes they rightly talk about the disruptions to the country in the event of a no-deal, but they talk very little about this. About how we're actually going to get the deal we want. I mean the EU have said consistently they're not willing to re-negotiate the deal. So even if Corbyn, Jeremy Corbyn or whoever it is, comes into power and they say, "Right, we're going to go back and re-negotiate this deal." Well how are you going to do that? If you've told the EU very clearly that you are not willing to walk away from it, why would they give you a great deal? The only deal possible in my book, in that instance, is effectively not leaving the EU, staying within the customs union and taking on all the responsibilities and all the constraints that come with that. But this time, without a say in the matter because we're not a part of the political project anymore. I don't think even the people who are pro-remain would really want that. I mean, if you're going to do that you might as well just stay in the EU.